Per Capita Consumption of Dairy - Up or Down?

Once a year, the US Department of Commence issues a report on the per capita consumption of U.S. dairy products.  It is published annually in mid-September.  The data is an annual summary dating back to 1975.  This post will compare domestic per capita consumption of the major dairy products; cheese, fluid milk, butter, ice cream, and yogurt. Overall, the current picture is mixed.

This is per capita consumption and does not reflect the total U.S. usage.  Population growth will be discussed in the final section of this post.

Cheese consumption has been the leader in growth for a long time (Chart I).  It is the largest use of U.S. milk.  Unfortunately, in the last four years, per capita consumption had been flat.  From 2000 to 2021 per capita cheese consumption has grown from 29.5 to 38.4 pounds per person annually, a 33 percent growth.  However, since 2018 the four-year growth has been only one percent.

Chart I - Cheese per Capita Consumption in the U.S.

By contrast, fluid milk has been on a major decline for a long time.  Since 2000, fluid milk per capita consumption has decreased from 196 to 134 pounds annually, a 32 percent drop.  The decrease has been steady and appears to be continuing at the same rate.  Fluid milk is the highest paid milk for producers and the decreasing volume reduces the "Uniform" or average price of producer milk.

Chart II - Fluid Milk per Capita Consumption in the U.S.

Butter has seen very nice growth increasing from 4.5 to 6.5 pounds, an increase of 44 percent (Chart III).  Over the last four years, butter per capita consumption has been increasing between two and three percent annually.  As covered in a prior post, there is currently a shortage of butter and as a result butter prices have shot up.  This will likely dampen demand at least in the short term. 

Chart III - Butter per Capita Consumption in the U.S.

Sadly, per capita consumption of ice cream is also falling.  In 2000, on the average, 22.7 pounds of ice cream was consumed.  In 2021, per capita consumption had decreased to 18.4 pounds, a decrease of 10 percent.  The decrease appears to be flattening (Chart IV).

Chart IV - Ice Cream per Capita Consumption in the U.S.

Yogurt had a tremendous growth between 2000 and 2013, climbing from 6.5 to 14.9 pounds per person.  Since 2013, there has been no increase in yogurt per capita consumption (Chart V).

Chart V - Yogurt per Capita Consumption in the U.S.

During the 22 years that this post covers, the U.S. population had grown from 282 million to 337 million, an increase of 20 percent (Chart VI).  The population of the U.S. was growing by one percent and that insured a steady growth in the need for milk.  The population growth has now slowed to about about .5 percent annually.  With the changes in consumption of the dairy products covered above, the increases in component levels, and a slowing growth in the population of the U.S., the demand for producer milk is slowing down.  

Chart VI - Population of the U.S.

Here is what we know for sure:

• Fluid milk will continue to decline.  As the need for Class I milk declines, some processing plants will have to be shut down and that will bring more expensive logistics to satisfy demand over a larger area.  In turn, it will negatively impact the "Uniform" average price of milk.
• Ice Cream will continue to slowly decline.  The impact will be minimal.
• Yogurt will remain stable.

Here is what is speculative:

• Cheese has a long history of growth.  The last four years of stable volumes are unusual.  Other European countries have a much bigger per capita consumption averaging around 62 pounds per year.  Growth of two to three percent should return.
• The most complicated area to analyze is butter.  As covered in a recent post, butter is in short supply and the short supply is causing very high prices.  Price elasticity of demand will slow down purchases of butter.  When more butter is available and prices decline, how quickly will consumers return?

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