At the end of November each year a report on per capita dairy consumption is compiled based on data from the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, and others. The report is an annual compilation through the prior year, in this case, 2022.
This post will cover the long-term growth or decline of major consumer dairy products which includes cheese, fluid milk, butter, yogurt, and ice cream.
Most of the data below is based on per capita consumption. The population of the U.S. grew by 0.4% in 2022 slightly increasing the total volume of consumption compared to per capita consumption changes.
CHEESE
The largest use of milk is for cheese, and the consumption rate shows significant and steady gains (Chart I). The 2022 gain in pounds per capita consumption is record setting with an increase of 1.4 pounds per person. During the year cheese prices have been at long-term levels, increasing purchases (see Chart IV in this post for details).
The news is both good and bad. The increase in cheese consumption is certainly a positive for dairy producers, but the stagnant cheese prices are keeping milk protein prices low.
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| Chart I - Per Capita Cheese Consumption |
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| Chart II - Percent Change in Cheese Consumption |
BUTTER
Butter per capita consumption has a long history of increases, but in 2022 consumption fell. In
2022, wholesale butter prices increased, setting record highs and causing higher retail prices. There has also been concern about saturated fats, but the most impactful reason for the decrease in consumption is higher consumer prices.
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| Chart III - Per Capita Butter Consumption |
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| Chart IV - Percent Change in Butter Consumption |
BUTTERFAT IMPACT
What changes the demand for butterfat? By far, the largest use of butterfat is for cheese. In 2022, 42% of butterfat went into cheese. Only 17% went to butter. Even though butter consumption went down, because of the increase in cheese consumption the demand for butterfat went up in 2022. In turn, butterfat prices have increased. As mentioned in many prior posts, as butterfat prices go up, milk protein prices go down.
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| Chart V - Butterfat Usage in Dairy Products |
FLUID MILK
The decline in fluid milk is very long-term (Chart VI). Fluid milk is declining by nearly equal volumes of 3 pounds per year per capita. Therefore, the percentage drop is increasing (Chart VII). Fluid milk is now rarely seen on the dining table as a beverage. The introduction of plant based "milk" has also certainly taken its's toll on fluid milk sales.
Whole milk as defined by the USDA as 3.5% butterfat and it is the largest usage of fluid milk representing 37% of fluid milk sales. Whole milk has maintained its volume over 23-years losing only 5% of volume. Sales of milk with 2% fat makes up 32% of sales. The remaining types of milk like 1% fat and fat free are declining fast.
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| Chart VI - Per Capita Fluid Milk Consumption |
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Chart VII - Percent Change in Fluid Milk Consumption
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ICE CREAM
The amount of ice cream consumed per capita continues its long-term decline. Nevertheless, it is still in fourth place in terms of butterfat usage. Over the 23-year span, ice cream demand has fallen by just 17%. The butterfat in ice cream is 7% of total butterfat usage.
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Chart IX - Per Capita Ince Cream Consumption
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YOGURT
Yogurt was growing fast in the period between 2000 to 2013. It then abruptly leveled out. It has remained steady for the next decade. The amount of butterfat used in yogurt is less than 1%.
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| Chart VII - Per Capita Yogurt Consumption |
SUMMARY OF DAIRY CONSUMPTION
The recent changes in per capita consumption are primarily the result of price changes. The price of butter has gone up and the volume of consumption has fallen. The price of cheese has been stable. and the volume of sales has increased. Cheese is the clear dairy growth product with a steady increase of 70% over 23 years. Butter has also grown over the 23 year span with a 64% growth in volume. Butter did. have a decrease in 2022 because of pricing. Fluid milk, ice cream, and yogurt are not growth products.
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