U.S. Milk Production is down. Which States have continued to grow?

There is a lot of concern about the decline in U.S. milk production.  Producer milk prices are low compared to prior years and many farmers are struggling to stay in business.  This post will cover where the lower milk production is occurring geographically and where milk per cow is growing or shrinking.  Increasing milk per cow has a financial benefit and the improvement in milk per cow has slipped in some regions.

U.S. MILK PRODUCTION

The first part of this post will cover the change in milk production as a percent change from the prior year.  Chart I illustrates the overall percent changes in the U.S. from the prior year.  Increasing milk production was positive through mid 2021.  Beyond that, there were more negative months than positive months.  The trend lines show a pattern of lower milk production in the U.S.  The charts below Chart I cover the changes in the major dairy states and are ranked by the current volume of milk production, largest to smallest.

Chart I - Percent Changes in U.S. Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

California is the largest milk producing state.  The monthly decreases in milk production were spotty beginning in 2021 and by 2023 the monthly decreases have become regular.

Chart I - Percent Changes in California Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

Wisconsin is the second largest milk producing state in the U.S.   Most of the. milk produced in Wisconsin is used in cheese production.  The decline of milk production began with slower but still positive increases starting in 2022.   For the last two years, Wisconsin milk production has only increased at about 1% annually (Chart II).

Chart II - Percent Changes in Wisconsin Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

Idaho is the third largest milk producing state and is not in a Federal Order.  Idaho had significant growth in milk production in 2019 and 2020 and still maintains positive but with slower.growth through 2023.  The trend lines do show a steady decline in growth over the last five years (Chart III).

Chart III - Percent Changes in Idaho Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

Texas, Chart IV, has a decline in the growth of milk production starting in 2021 and continuing to decrease to negative levels in 2023.  Most months in 2023 had lower milk production vs. the prior year.  This is a drastic change as Texas was the fasting growing milk producing state through 2022.

Chart IV - Percent Changes in Texas Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

Michigan has maintained growth of milk production although there was a slowdown in 2022.  In 2023, most every month showed an increase in milk production vs. the prior year.  As will be covered in the second part of this post, Michigan has also showed a steady growth in milk production per cow which brings lower cost to milk production.

Chart V - Percent Changes in Michigan Milk Production
vs. the Prior Year

The charts above show a mixed impact of growth in milk production.  Michigan and Wisconsin have maintained growth but at a slower rate.  California has the fastest decline in milk production.

MILK PER COW

Milk per cow is an important parameter to follow as more milk per cow increases revenue per cow.  The U.S. enjoyed steady growth in milk per cow through 2022.  In 2023, that increase in milk per cow slowed (Chart VI).

Chart VI - U.S. Milk per Cow per Month

Michigan (Chart VII) remains the leader in milk per cow.  While the growth has slowed, it is sill mostly positive with an average of 2284 pounds per cow in January 2024.  Milk per cow peaked at 2295 pounds per month in March of 2023, well above any other state.

Chart VII - Michigan Milk per Cow per Month

Texas is also growing in milk per cow.  It is now ranked second with 2133 pounds per month average.  It also peaked in March 2023 with 2141 pounds per month.

Chart VI - Texas Milk per Cow per Month

Wisconsin has had continuous growth in milk per cow with an average of 2104 pounds per month in January 2024.  The Wisconsin gain in milk per cow is the most consistent of any state.

Chart VI I- Wisconsin Milk per Cow per Month

Idaho has had a very erratic path with milk per cow.  After peaking at 2115 pounds per month in March 2023, it has now fallen to 2082 pounds per month.  At its present level it is still the fourth best in milk per cow.  

Chart VIII- Idaho Milk per Cow per Month

California has also dropped milk per cow by 2% in the last year.  Its current milk per cow is 1983 pounds, 14% lower than Michigan.

Chart IX - California Milk per Cow per Month

Overall, U.S. milk production in the U.S has slowed to no growth or negative growth.  Growth in milk per cow continues in the U.S. but at slower gains.

Wisconsin has maintained the steadiest gain in milk per cow.  This is also consistent with their growth in milk volume.  Michigan has continued to lead the country in milk per cow.