Is Dairy Productivity Increasing?

This post will cover how dairy productivity is increasing.  It will cover milk per cow, butterfat component levels, protein component levels, and somatic cell counts (SCC).  Much of this data is based on Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) data and some is based on data from the USDA.  The data below compares the various states and FMMOs.

Milk per cow has plateaued in the last year after many years of growth.  Butterfat and milk protein levels are seeing tremendous gains. The decrease in SCC levels has slowed.

In the prior post, milk production was reviewed.  Milk production is down overall, but some states are still seeing significant gains.  Milk per cow is following a similar pattern.  Overall milk per cow is plateauing with some states seeing significant gains.

MILK PER COW

Milk per cow has been increasing by about one percent per year for a long time.  Starting in mid 2021, the increases slowed down and milk per cow has stayed just under 2000 pounds per month for the last year (Chart I).

Chart I - Milk per Cow

Chart II shows the incremental changes vs. the prior year in milk per cow.  In 2020, milk per cow increased around 30 pounds per month or about 1.5 percent annually. The current growth is now around 14 pounds per month, less than one percent increase from the prior year

Chart II - Changes in Milk per Cow

Chart III shows the changes in milk per cow by the largest dairy states.  Michigan has by far the highest milk producing cows with milk around 2250 pounds per month.  However, starting in early 2021, Michigan milk per cow leveled off and began a slight decline.  The state with the fastest growth rate in milk per cow is Texas with an increase of 4.6 percent over the years shown in Chart III.  California had the next fastest growth rate in milk per cow with 4.2 percent gain.  However, California also has the lowest milk per cow of the six states shown below.

Chart III - Milk per Cow by Federal Order

BUTTERFAT AND MILK PROTEIN

Chart IV shows the growth in butterfat (the blue line) and milk protein (the purple line).  The left vertical axis is percent butterfat, and the right vertical axis is the percent milk protein.  Both have seen tremendous growth starting in 2020.  The growth is still increasing with butterfat averages closing in on four percent and protein nearing 3.25 percent.  Butterfat is paid in all 11 Federal Orders, but milk protein is paid for specifically in only the seven Federal Orders paid by the "Class and Component" system.

Chart IV - Percent Butterfat and Protein

BUTTERFAT

Chart V illustrates the change in butterfat components vs. the prior year.  In early 2020, butterfat percent increased very slowly, but it never went negative.  It was always greater than the prior year.  Beginning in mid 2020, the rate of increase began to accelerate.   Currently butterfat, based on 12-month moving averages is increasing at .06 percent annually.  At this rate, butterfat percent will easily pass four percent in 2022.

Chart V - Percentage Increases in Butterfat Percent

Based on 12-month moving averages, the Southwest Federal Order (Texas and New Mexico), has increased butterfat from 3.93 percent to 4.14 percent, a .21 percent increase since the beginning of 2018.  The Southwest has by far the highest butterfat component levels.  The Upper Midwest has also increased butterfat significantly and in February 2022 it reached 4.23 percent.  The 12-month moving averages for the Upper Midwest is over four percent.  Butterfat prices are at current record highs and could be described as "dairyman's gold."

Chart VI - Butterfat Percent by Federal Order

MILK PROTEIN

Milk protein percent is paid specifically for the FMMOs paid by the Class and Component system.  As shown in Chart VII, milk protein's moving average is currently at 3.23 percent.

Chart VII - Protein Percent

Chart VIII shows the annual incremental increases in milk protein percent.  Currently, the rate of increase is an additional .06 percent per year, similar to the butterfat incremental increase shown in Chart V.  In late 2019 and early 2020, milk protein percent decreased, unlike butterfat shown in Chart V.  

Chart VIII - Increases in Protein Percent

The individual Federal Order protein changes are shown in Chart IX below.  The Southwest has had steady increases and now has the highest percent protein of any Federal Order.  The 12-month moving average for the Southwest is now 3.34 percent and the highest single monthly percent is 3.48 percent.

Chart IX - Protein Percent by Federal Order

SOMATIC CELL COUNT

Somatic cell counts have been dropping for a long time.  There are four Federal Orders that get paid for a cell count under 350,000 cells per milliliter.  The lowest recorded monthly cell count for a Federal Order is 159,000 cells per milliliter.  There are individual records lower than that.  Some scientists estimate that the lowest possible would be around 120,000 cells per milliliter.  

Unfortunately, in the last half of 2021, the somatic cell count increased a little (Chart X).  

Chart X - Somatic Cell Counts

Chart XI shows the change in the 12-month moving averages from the prior year.  Negative numbers are good meaning the SCC is decreasing.  However, in 2021 the change was positive meaning that the SCC is increasing.

Chart XI - Changes in SCCs

Chart XII shows the individual SCCs for the four Federal Orders that are paid for lower SCCs.  Lower SCCs are important for efficient cheese production, and some cheese producers offer additional bonuses for low SCCs.  That may be why the Upper Midwest has a very low SCC.  The Southwest and Central Federal Orders have SCCs well above the Mideast and Upper Midwest.

Chart XII - SCCs by Federal Order

SUMMARY

In summary, some productivity analytics are positive, showing great growth, and others are flat to declining.  Milk per cow has slowed down to almost no growth after years of steady increases.  Component levels of butterfat and milk protein continue to increase.  The Southwest (Texas and New Mexico) has shown steady growth in both butterfat and milk protein levels and now have the highest levels of any Federal Order.

Somatic cell counts had an upward "blip" in 2021 but have started to decline in 2022.  This is the one statistic that the Southwest Federal Order has not shown improvement in.  The Southwest has the highest level of SSCs of the four FMMOs that are paid for lower SCCs.