Did Butterfat and Protein Levels Grow 2022?

In the prior post, the growth of milk and cows in 2022 was explored.  Milk per cow was growing at an average of one percent per year.  If components were also growing at that rate, there would be enough growth in milk components to support the growth of butter and cheese.

Component data is now available for the entire year of 2022.  In a nutshell, butterfat in milk is growing fast enough to meet this goal.  In fact, with the high prices for butterfat, 2022 was a very strong year for butterfat levels.  Protein levels are growing a little slower.  This post will also cover Somatic Cell Counts (SCC).  SSCs seem to be reaching a level where further improvement is very slow.

BUTTERFAT PERCENT

Table I below lists the percentage of butterfat in milk from highest to lowest for each Federal Order.  All Federal Orders get paid for the volume of butterfat that their cows give.  In 2022, the average butterfat percent broke the four percent barrier and ended the year with an average of 4.06 percent butterfat.  The four Federal Orders paid on the advanced system are all at the bottom of this Table.  While the four at the bottom do not get paid for protein, they do get paid for all the butterfat they can produce.  Florida, the smallest Federal Order is at the very bottom with more than a half percent less butterfat than the top Federal Order.

Table I - 2022 Butterfat Content
by Federal Order

An important question is at what rate is butterfat percent growing?  Table II lists the same 11 Federal Orders by their 2022 percent increase in butterfat.  If a herd's butterfat was at 4 percent, to increase butterfat levels by one percent, they would have to grow butterfat content by .04 percent butterfat to 4.04 percent.  The Pacific Northwest grew by almost five percent in 2022 increasing butterfat levels from 4.11 percent to 4.30 percent, a huge one-year increase.

The year 2022 was amazing with an average an overall increase of 2.27 percent.  The overall average for the last five years is .91 percent increase, near to the one percent annual increase needed to meet the needs of processors without adding cows.  All Federal Orders showed increases except the Southwest.  The Southwest had nice increases in 2020 and 2021 and held on to those increases in 2022 but made to further gains.

Table II - Butterfat Increase by
Federal Order for 2022

Chart I shows the seasonal variations in butterfat levels.  It also shows that with the incentive of high butterfat prices, significant growth in butterfat levels is possible.  As butterfat prices fall (the subject of the next post), will butterfat levels continue to show healthy growth?

Chart I - Monthly Butterfat Levels

Chart II takes the seasonal variation out of the picture by using 12-month moving averages.

The butterfat increase gained speed in 2021 and 2022 with the record butterfat prices.

Chart II - 12-Month Moving Averages of Butterfat Levels

PROTEIN PERCENT

High protein levels are very important for cheese makers, the biggest users of milk.  If there is not enough protein in the milk, more must be added to capture the butterfat in cheese when the Casein proteins coagulate.

The Pacific Northwest is again at the top of the list with a .15 percent difference from the average.  There are seven Federal Orders that are paid for protein specifically.  They are ranked by protein content in Table III below.

Table III - Protein Content by
Federal Order in 2022

The increases in 2022 averaged 1.25 percent (Table II).  However, the average annual growth for the last five years was only .69 percent.  The growth rate of protein in 2022 was significantly lower than the growth rate of butterfat.  As covered in the January 11 post, when the price of butterfat goes up, the price of protein goes down creating less of an ROI for increasing protein levels.

Table IV - Protein Increases by
Federal Order for 2022

Protein levels in milk have the same seasonal pattern as butterfat with the highest levels occurring in the November to January period (Chart III).

Chart III - Monthly Protein Levels

Chart IV displays the protein percentage using 12-month moving averages.  In early 2020, protein levels did not increase.  But by midyear, they began their steady increase as shown in Chart IV.

Chart IV - 12-Month Moving Averages of Protein Levels

SCC

SCC did not improve in 2022.  SCC is reported based on Federal Order payment data for the four Federal Orders that are paid with the SCC adjustment factor.  Table IV lists the SCC for 2022 for each of these Orders.  Comparing the four Orders, the pattern follows the latitude of the four Federal Orders.  The Upper Midwest has the coolest summers and the lowest SCC.  The Southwest, primarily Texas, has the warmest summers and the highest SCC.

Table IV - The 2022 Somatic Cell Count in thousands
for the Federal Orders paid for lower SCCs

SCCs are highest in the warmest part of the year as shown in Chart V below.   This chart does not show improvement in the warmest part of the year, but it does show improvement in the cooler months with increasingly low SCC.  Can we blame this on global warming?  The Southwest also has the largest variation in SCC.

Chart V - Monthly Somatic Cell Counts

Chart VI is based on 12-month averages to remove annual cyclical variances.  While the data does show some improvement, it is not as consistent as the same charts for butterfat and protein levels.   The trend line does show a slowdown in reducing SCC.  Further reductions may occur slowly.

Chart VI - 12-Month Moving Averages
of Somatic Cell Counts 

SUMMARY

Butterfat levels have grown significantly in 2022 with the strong prices.  Protein has not grown as fast perhaps driven by negative protein pricing impact of high butterfat prices.

Somatic Cell Counts appear to be leveling off.  Will it be possible to get below 100,000?